Haofeng Ma, Ph.D.

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Publications

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

ForthcomingMacrodiscontent Across Countries

¹Haofeng Ma, ^2*Jeongho Choi, ³Yuehong Cassandra Tai, ⁴Yue Hu, and ⁵Frederick Solt. 2026. European Political Science Review.

▶ Abstract Preprint Code

Public discontent with the political system has become an increasingly salient concern in recent years, with the argument that it undermines democratic stability and effective governance. Nevertheless, the understanding of the nature, trends, and drivers of political discontent remain debated, largely reflecting the constraints from available survey data and items in the construction of measurement. This article takes advantage of state-of-the-art latent-variable modeling to aggregate survey responses and a comprehensive collection of survey data to generate dynamic comparative estimates of public political discontent (PPD) for 136 countries and regions over 56 years (1968–2023). These PPD scores are validated with responses to the individual source-data survey items that were used to generate them as well as the democratic evaluation survey item that was not used in our estimation. Next, a cross-national and longitudinal analysis of PPD in advanced democracies (i.e., OECD countries) highlights that public political discontent has been on a rising trend, rather than merely “trendless fluctuations” as Norris (2011) claimed. Our results reveal that these increased discontents are largely attributable to worsening economic conditions, including low average income, slow growth, and high unemployment rates.

Speaking the State: Linguistic Displacement and Political Support

¹Haofeng Ma and ^2*Jeongho Choi. 2026. Social Science Quarterly 107(4): e70170.

▶ Abstract Version of Record

Objective: We examine how the misalignment between ethnic-language schooling and the adult linguistic environment—a condition we term linguistic displacement—shapes ethnic minorities’ political support for the central state in China. Methods: Using the China Family Panel Studies (2012–2018), we link childhood school records to adult political attitudes for 210 ethnic minority respondents across 10 ethnolinguistic groups. We estimate an interaction model in which the effect of ethnic-school attendance on central-state evaluations is conditioned on adult Mandarin fluency as an indicator of the adult linguistic environment, with ethnicity fixed effects and a Heckman-type selection correction to address endogeneity in school choice. Results: Ethnic schooling has no measurable political cost for respondents whose adult lives remain in an ethnic-language environment but is associated with more critical evaluations of the central state among those who have moved into a Mandarin-dominant one. The pattern appears for central-state evaluations but not for local-cadre trust, consistent with hierarchical trust theory. Conclusions: The findings reframe a long-standing debate by showing that the political consequences of ethnic-language education are not fixed but conditional on the post-schooling linguistic environment. States that protect minority languages in schools while promoting a national lingua franca elsewhere predictably generate the conditions for linguistic displacement—and its political costs.

The Language Policies of Ethnic Autonomous Regions

¹Elise Pizzi, ²Alex Bezahler, and ^3✱Haofeng Ma. 2026. Regional Studies 60(1): 2659800.

▶ Abstract Version of Record Accepted Manuscript

Official language recognition and language of education are often contentious in plural societies. Ethnic regional autonomy (ERA) enables local language policies. We examine official language status, language of instruction and compulsory language learning in 135 ERAs in 31 countries. We find titular ethnic languages are more likely to have official status in regions with larger titular ethnic populations. Titular ethnic languages are more likely to be used for instruction in democracies; regional institutions do not influence language policy. Results highlight the importance of local demographics and country institutional context and have implications for language practices and preservation in plural societies.

The Political Ramifications of Corruption Experience for Political Trust and Pro-Leadership Voting: Evidence from Russia

^1*William M. Reisinger, ²Marina Zaloznaya, and ³Haofeng Ma. 2022. Russian Politics 7(2): 289–310.

▶ Abstract Version of Record Accepted Manuscript

How do citizens’ experiences of corruption affect their political trust and voting behavior? By analyzing a nationally representative survey of Russian citizens conducted a few months after the 2018 presidential election, we find that citizens who engaged in street-level bureaucratic corruption in the preceding two years assess the national leadership as more corrupt and express lower trust in them. This association between corruption engagement and a worsening of people’s views remains even when citizens gained benefits by providing officials with an incentive. We also show that higher perceptions of elite corruption and lower trust in the political leadership are important factors in reducing pro-Kremlin voting. Our findings indicate that even in an authoritarian country citizens’ negative experiences with bureaucracy reduce political support for the national political regime.

Peer-Reviewed Book Chapters

ForthcomingThe Strategic Self-Presentation of Presidential Personas: Personality Divergence Across Formal and Spontaneous Speeches and Its Effects on Political Trust

¹Haofeng Ma and ^2*Jeongho Choi. 2026. In Political Communication, Congress, and the Presidency: The Year in C-SPAN Archives Research, Volume 11, ed. Robert X. Browning. West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press.

▶ Abstract

Do leaders' personalities appear consistent across communicative settings, and does it matter for public trust? This chapter introduces the concept of persona divergence—the extent to which leaders' observed Big Five personality traits differ between formal, scripted settings and spontaneous, unscripted ones. Analyzing presidential utterances from George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first term), and Joe Biden using the C-SPAN Video Library and a text-based personality recognition model, we find that presidents systematically amplify extraversion in formal speeches while other traits diverge in context-dependent ways. We then link these measures to individual-level data from the General Social Survey and show that greater persona divergence significantly reduces citizens' trust in the president. Inconsistencies in extraversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, and openness across settings are each associated with lower trust, with substantive effects comparable to or exceeding those of partisan identification. The findings suggest that citizens are sensitive to perceived inauthenticity in leaders' self-presentation, and that strategic image management carries real costs when inconsistencies become visible across communicative contexts.

Doctoral Dissertation

Native Tongue, Language Policy, and Political Attitudes

Haofeng Ma. 2024. The University of Iowa.

Committee: Elise Pizzi (Co-Chair), William M. Reisinger (Co-Chair), Frederick Solt, and Wenfang Tang.

▶ Abstract University Repository

This dissertation is a pioneering exploration of how the relationship between individuals’ native tongue(s) and the state’s official language(s) influences citizens’ attitudes toward the political system. First, using data from the 7th wave of the World Values Survey, my research finds robust evidence that, although speaking the official language strengthens attachment to the country, it simultaneously tends to reduce support for the regime and its specific core institutions. Moreover, even when citizens are not proficient in the official language, speaking a language that is linguistically similar to the official language increases national attachment but decreases support for the regime and its institutions. Furthermore, the effects of language are shown to be more powerful in explaining individual variations in political attitudes than most factors traditionally considered in the field. Next, using Round 4 of the Afrobarometer in Sub-Saharan Africa, I examine how multilingualism and the type of state language (colonial vs. indigenous) complicate these effects. The findings reveal that, in such contexts, the effects of language are more nuanced and vary across first and second languages, types of state languages, and different political attitudes. Finally, using nationally representative survey data from China, I confirm that linguistic variations, even at the dialectal level, still significantly influence public political attitudes. Additionally, I find the existence of a dialect-based political attitude field, where individuals speaking closely related dialects tend to converge in their political views. This dissertation contributes to the research on public opinion by shedding light on the profound yet often overlooked ways in which linguistic differences shape political attitudes, while also contributing to political science and social science at large by highlighting the salient role of language in political and social life, which deserves closer attention in light of current increasingly multilingual and multicultural trends.

Manuscripts Under Review

Bolstering or Burdening? Causal Evidence of Memory Priming on Political Cognition

¹Yue Hu and ^2✱Haofeng Ma.

▶ Abstract

How does evoking collective memory shape political cognition? Does reminding citizens of a past triumph make them judge ongoing government challenges more generously or more harshly? This study offers rare causal evidence through memory-priming experiments embedded in a nationally quota-representative Chinese sample during COVID-19. The experiments show that priming the memory of past pandemic containment does not bolster confidence in the government. Instead, the activated victory memory operates as an evaluative benchmark, elevating expectations and casting the protracted COVID-19 response as inadequate. Treated subjects show a significant approval decline, and the effect spills into broader political trust and social capital. Yet in a follow-up experiment, the benchmark effect disappears among subjects without lived SARS experience, indicating the mechanism hinges on personal memory rather than narrated history. These findings advance memory politics and reference construction in political psychology by clarifying what state narratives of the past can and cannot accomplish.

Not All Dissatisfaction Diverts: Political Discontent and the Diversionary Theory of War

^1✱Haofeng Ma and ²Weidong Zhang.

▶ Abstract

Political leaders facing domestic trouble are widely theorized to pursue international conflict as a diversion. But diversion from what, exactly? Drawing on Easton’s distinction between specific and diffuse support, we argue that dissatisfaction with incumbent leaders and dissatisfaction with the political system have distinct effects on diversionary behavior. System-level discontent does not create the personal survival pressure that motivates diversionary action, and when severe, conflict risks deepening rather than alleviating it. Using the Public Political Discontent dataset for 124 countries from 1968 to 2012, we find no evidence that diffuse discontent triggers MID initiation. Yet once conflict occurs, discontent with the political system declines significantly in democracies and remains reduced for up to six years, an expanded rally effect with no counterpart in non-democracies. These findings offer a theoretical explanation for the mixed results in the diversionary literature and reveal a previously undocumented consequence of international conflict for democratic legitimacy.